Daily stonks: Weed, Tesla, and RDDT earnings

Author

Michael Luo
May 06, 2024

Here’s the latest under the radar stock news from the last 24 hours that you don’t want to miss, as picked by Fluid Bot’s AI.

  • SNDL surge, Tesla layoffs, and CROX's upcoming play

  • In depth analysis on RDDT’s upcoming earnings

  • Cannabis stocks are in a bull market that has just begun

  • SNDL stock has proven doubters wrong

  • Resistance set on Tuesday has been broken

  • Time to invest in cannabis stocks before they rise even higher

  • Tesla has started a new round of layoffs affecting service, software, and engineering teams

  • Employees were informed through email that May 5th would be their last day at the company

  • This is the third round of layoffs since a 10 percent cut announced in April

  • Tesla's SVP Tom Zhu is reportedly returning to China as Vice President for the market

  • Other executives like Rebecca Tinucci and Daniel Ho have left the company

  • Tinucci had been with Tesla for 6 years and will be laid off along with her team of 500 people

  • Reddit's market cap is only $7 billion, compared to similar companies like Pinterest and Twitter which are worth 5X that

  • Reddit hasn't historically advertised as well or have cash generating products like premium accounts and marketplace platforms

  • Reddit's traffic may have bots

  • Upside: low risk, high potential for cash generating products, increased traffic due to Google algorithm, influential platform

  • Downside: Reddit's Executive Team owns a majority of shares which may hinder innovation and monetization

  • Crocs has a strong social media presence with 2 million followers on TikTok and Instagram

  • Limited edition collaborations like the Pringles Crocs sell out quickly and have high margins

  • Crocs acquired Heydude in 2021, which is struggling with revenue dropping by 22%

  • Terence Reilly, known for his success with Stanley bottles, has been brought in to lead Heydude

  • Crocs' stock is undervalued compared to competitors like Skechers and PVH

  • Crocs' recent earnings report showed a 12% increase in stock price, but guidance for next quarter is soft due to Heydude's struggles

  • CROX will release earnings on May 7th with an expected 10% implied move, potential for surprise in store

I read through Reddit’s S-1 (IPO docs) in preparation for their latest earnings report. Here’s my take & plays.

TL;DR

  • Buy Reddit stock if you think they'll figure out their shitty advertising and AI data selling business.

  • Buy long dated puts if you think they can't grow their user base (and ads) and their treasure trove of meme data isn't valuable for AI companies.

  • Buy short term calls if you think they'll have blow out ad revenue projections for the year.

The real burning question for investors and degens alike: can Reddit turn its massive user base anddata galaxy into a profit supernova in the next 5-10 years, or are we looking at a fizzling financial black hole?

📉 Short-Term Speculation: A Risky Bet?

If you're thinking of playing the short game with Reddit's stock, you may want to hold onto your tendies. While the platform could potentially ride the hype wave with a sunny projected outlook, the immediate future is as clear as a murky meme swamp. It's a coin flip whether they'll unveil a dazzling monetization strategy this quarter, so you might not want to bet the farm just yet.

🤖 Data Goldmine or Junkyard?

There's no denying the sheer volume of data swirling around Reddit's vast universe of subreddits. And yes, in the AI realm, that data is the equivalent of gold. But here's the kicker: a lot of their time data is garbage memes, not-so-funny jokes, and less-than-savory content. So, while Reddit's data trove is vast, the treasure lies in the quality, not just the quantity. It's unclear how valuable long term the data will be.

🐦 The Next Twitter Conundrum?

Remember the pre-Musk Twitter days? The platform was like a social media middle child – not quite failing but not exactly thriving either. Reddit seems to be caught in a similar growth purgatory, with user numbers gently inching up but not making any seismic waves. And let's not talk about ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) – it's not exactly shooting for the stars.

☕ Bottom Line:

So, what's the play? Long term, if Reddit can harness its data and sell it to AI companies, there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. The question remains: how big is that pot, and can they clean that data without getting lost in the sauce?

Reddit's upcoming earnings report is less about the now and more about the "what could be." The platform's data is a diamond in the rough – valuable but in need of a good polish. Whether Reddit can capitalize on this potential and boost its ARPU is the multi-million-dollar question.

  • Buy Reddit stock if you think they'll figure out their shitty advertising and AI data selling business.

  • Buy long dated puts if you think they can't grow their user base (and ads) and their treasure trove of meme data isn't valuable for AI companies.

  • Buy short term calls if you think they'll have blow out ad revenue projections for the year.